Saturday, March 21, 2009

Optimism Is Creeping Back

The following chart is from, a polling outfit that averages most major polls and then regresses the plot to show trend lines. Averages of averages are a relatively good measure for broad indicators. Fortunately, this broad indicator measures American economic optimism!

After long stagnation of relative pessimism, the gap is starting to narrow between those who believe the economy is worsening and those who believe the economy is getting better. Of course, no good analyst will confuse opinion polls with reality, but to the extent that optimism may reflect future spending patterns, this is really great news.

FYI, interestingly, the famous "right track/wrong track" number about the country's direction is continuing a sharp narrowing trend after a long wide gap that started a marked turn-around after the election last fall. It may reinforce or correlate with the above. Regardless, still great news.